Poll Wrap-up

We've had many polls in the past few days. From the close (Madrid-Wilson) to the not-so close (practically every other Congressional race). Here's a quick recap of the races polled from Aug 25-31.

Note: If the numbers don't add to 100%, it is because the Albuquerque Journal did not report all the numbers (undecideds, will not vote, etc.)

First Congressional District
Heather Wilson (R) 45%
Patricia Madrid (D) 42%
Neither 3%
Undecided 10%
MOE: +/- 4.8%

My Take: This race will come down to election day. Expect even more campaign ads and even more money being pumped into the race. If you are already sick and tired of the attack ads, you might as well not watch network TV for the next two months. One mistake by either candidate can torpedo their chances.

See the very bottom of this post for some good news for Madrid.

Second Congressional District
Steve Pearce (R) 54%
Al Kissling (D) 29%
MOE: +/- 8.4%

My Take: It's bad for Kissling, but not as bad as it might seem at first. While Kissling is still a long shot to take the seat from the incumbent, he can at least make this a race. Live From Silver City looks at the details. The bad news? Pearce has the support of a third of Democrats in the district.

Third Congressional District
Tom Udall (D) 71%
John Dolin (R) 18%
MOE: +/- 8.4%

My Take: Tom Udall will be re-elected. Easily. Not much I need to say about this.

New Mexico Senator
Jeff Bingaman (D) 62%
Allen McCulloch(R) 23%
Undecided 16%
MOE: +/- 3.7%

My Take: Jeff Bingaman's approval rating is incredibly high; 58% of Republicans approve of Bingaman's job performance. McCulloch is in the same boat as John Dolin in NM-03.

Governor
Bill Richardson (D) 57%
John Dendahl (R) 28%
Undecided 11%
MOE: +/- 3.7%

My Take: Richardson is immensely popular; Richardson, at this point, isn't worried about winning, but rather the margin of victory. Presidential springboard?

State Treasurer
James Lewis (D) 40%
Demesia Padilla (R) 26%
Undecided 34%
MOE: ?

My Take: Neither candidate has got his/her name out there in front of voters. Lewis will probably win this election because he is a Democrat.

Attorney General
Gary King (D) 47%
Jim Bibb (R) 27%
Undecided 26%
MOE: +/- 3.7%

My Take: Again, a huge amount of undecided voters. But these results should be encouraging to Democratic Congress hopeful Patricia Madrid in NM-01; voters could have chose to punish King (the Democrat) for the Robert Vigil mess. It looks like the Republican efforts to make this all about Vigil aren't working that well; and King's name recognition can't hurt.

State Land Commissioner
Jim Baca (D) 41%
Pat Lyons (R) 36%
MOE: +/- 3.7%

My Take: While Baca is ahead for now, Lyons has much more money than Baca. Baca had to fight off Ray Powell in the primary, while Lyons ran unopposed. The fact that not many people know what the State Land Commissioner does will probably cause people to vote along party lines; maybe Richardson will help Baca, maybe Wilson will help Lyons.

Update: For some reason, I completely forgot about the whole Jeff Armijo incident. An Armijo return to the Auditor race only serves to help Republicans -- and in such a close election, Pat Lyons stand to gain the most.

Another poll released today shows that Mayor Martin Chavez has a 62 percent approval rating. I'm not a big fan of Mayor Marty, but he has endorsed Madrid, and if Chavez campaigns for Madrid heavily ... it looks like it can't hurt.

I think that the people that would normally be put off by Chavez are already those solidly in the Madrid or Wilson camps.

Those are the first run of Albuquerque Journal polls. Disagree with anything I say? See something I missed? Commenting is easy.