ABQ Journal Poll: Wilson-Madrid Race Tight
If you have read my blog before, you can guess which Congressional race is in play -- yup, the Patricia Madrid - Heather Wilson matchup in the First Congressional District.
Brian Sanderoff had his poll 45-42, with Wilson in the lead. Ten percent are undecided, and the rest (three percent) say they aren't going to vote for either; the margin of error is 4.8 percent. This is in line with the Dem poll taken a couple weeks back.
The approval rating for Wilson is 46 percent, while Madrid has a 44 percent approval rating. Why so low for both?
Pretty much everything that was said after the Dems released their internal poll still holds; the race will be close in November and Madrid and Wilson will continue to fling mud at eachother like children after a rainstorm.
One thing to look at, from Brian Sanderoff.
Iraq is getting steadily worse (the only time bad news from Iraq seemed to be out of the news is when it was pushed out by the Israel-Hezballah war). President Bush's approval ratings are stagnant, still stuck below 40 percent; and perhaps more tellingly, the media is starting to realize that Bush is no longer the ultra-popular President he was in the weeks after 9/11. He is closer to the Nixon Line than he is to that 90 percent approval rating Pres of five years ago.
In fact, Bush's ratings in New Mexico are in line with national numbers; only 38 percent approve, while 51 percent have a negative rating of his job as President. Eleven percent are undecided. Of course, he is doing better than Congress in the eyes of likely voters; only 34 percent think the incumbents in Congress are doing a good job.
If Madrid is successful in tying Wilson and her voting record of being a voting buddy for Bush (which will be hard for Wilson to hide, since it is publicly searchable), that three percent can easily slide away.
Expect both camps to spin the poll their way; Wilson will emphasize that she is indeed ahead. Madrid's camp will point out that Wilson is below 50 percent approval rating as an incumbent, and the negative feelings in Bernalillo County towards Bush.
Brian Sanderoff had his poll 45-42, with Wilson in the lead. Ten percent are undecided, and the rest (three percent) say they aren't going to vote for either; the margin of error is 4.8 percent. This is in line with the Dem poll taken a couple weeks back.
The approval rating for Wilson is 46 percent, while Madrid has a 44 percent approval rating. Why so low for both?
Sanderoff said he believes the advertising crossfire likely played a role in the less-than-rosy job approval ratings for both candidates.
Source: ABQ Journal
Pretty much everything that was said after the Dems released their internal poll still holds; the race will be close in November and Madrid and Wilson will continue to fling mud at eachother like children after a rainstorm.
One thing to look at, from Brian Sanderoff.
Wilson, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, has been a longtime backer of the U.S. military involvement in Iraq while Madrid has called for a quick-turnaround exit plan. And Sanderoff said what takes place in Iraq in the coming two months -- along with the rise or fall of Bush's approval ratings -- could have a big impact on the outcome of the Wilson-Madrid contest.
Source: ABQ Journal
Iraq is getting steadily worse (the only time bad news from Iraq seemed to be out of the news is when it was pushed out by the Israel-Hezballah war). President Bush's approval ratings are stagnant, still stuck below 40 percent; and perhaps more tellingly, the media is starting to realize that Bush is no longer the ultra-popular President he was in the weeks after 9/11. He is closer to the Nixon Line than he is to that 90 percent approval rating Pres of five years ago.
In fact, Bush's ratings in New Mexico are in line with national numbers; only 38 percent approve, while 51 percent have a negative rating of his job as President. Eleven percent are undecided. Of course, he is doing better than Congress in the eyes of likely voters; only 34 percent think the incumbents in Congress are doing a good job.
If Madrid is successful in tying Wilson and her voting record of being a voting buddy for Bush (which will be hard for Wilson to hide, since it is publicly searchable), that three percent can easily slide away.
Expect both camps to spin the poll their way; Wilson will emphasize that she is indeed ahead. Madrid's camp will point out that Wilson is below 50 percent approval rating as an incumbent, and the negative feelings in Bernalillo County towards Bush.
posted by LP at 1:05 AM
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