ABQ Journal: Madrid-Wilson Race a Dead Heat
In the latest Albuquerque Journal poll (the results released hot off the presses, the numbers are even. 44-44 for Madrid and Wilson in New Mexico's race for House in the First Congressional District.
Here are the full numbers:
Patricia Madrid (D): 44%
Heather Wilson (R): 44%
Undecided 7%
Will Not Vote: 5%
MOE: plus or minus 5%
Last poll's numbers:
Indeed. This race was already a top-tier race, a top-ten or near-top-ten race in every election expert's rankings. Now, it is a race that is a complete toss-up.
Madrid's most beneficial gains are perhaps in securing her Democratic base.
This is a big deal; as many people have pointed out in the run-up to the election, this district has more Democrats than Republicans.
Wilson's numbers among her own party are slightly higher (85 percent vs last poll's 83 percent), but she didn't have much higher to go; that well is basically tapped out.
I could go into all the nuances of the poll as reported by the Journal (Hispanics trending towards Madrid, college graduates towards Wilson), but you can go read Jeff Jones' article for those.
Do you have anything to add? Anything I missed? Want to explain the ever-mystifying margin of error in terms us normal people can understand? Commenting is easy.
[Update]: More at Democracy For New Mexico, who actually beat me to the punch.
Here are the full numbers:
Patricia Madrid (D): 44%
Heather Wilson (R): 44%
Undecided 7%
Will Not Vote: 5%
MOE: plus or minus 5%
Last poll's numbers:
Heather Wilson (R) 45%Madrid is trending up (slightly), while Wilson is more or less holding steady, and those who will not vote are climbing slightly. All this adds up to a race that is sure to only grow in stature before November.
Patricia Madrid (D) 42%
Neither 3%
Undecided 10%
MOE: +/- 4.8%
"It doesn't get any more exciting than a neck-to-neck tie," said veteran political watcher and University of New Mexico political science professor emeritus F. Chris Garcia.
Indeed. This race was already a top-tier race, a top-ten or near-top-ten race in every election expert's rankings. Now, it is a race that is a complete toss-up.
Madrid's most beneficial gains are perhaps in securing her Democratic base.
Madrid has solidified support within her own party, according to the polls: 74 percent of Democrats in the new poll said they favored her, compared with the late-August Journal survey showing 66 percent of Democrats supporting her.
Wilson had support from 11 percent of Democrats in the new poll, down from 17 percent in the previous poll.
This is a big deal; as many people have pointed out in the run-up to the election, this district has more Democrats than Republicans.
Wilson's numbers among her own party are slightly higher (85 percent vs last poll's 83 percent), but she didn't have much higher to go; that well is basically tapped out.
I could go into all the nuances of the poll as reported by the Journal (Hispanics trending towards Madrid, college graduates towards Wilson), but you can go read Jeff Jones' article for those.
Do you have anything to add? Anything I missed? Want to explain the ever-mystifying margin of error in terms us normal people can understand? Commenting is easy.
[Update]: More at Democracy For New Mexico, who actually beat me to the punch.
posted by LP at 12:27 AM
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